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Is a bet on Buffett really a bet against America?

  • Writer: James McAdam Stacey
    James McAdam Stacey
  • Aug 17, 2020
  • 2 min read

Buffett has long been considered the world's greatest investor. However, of late Buffett has been attracting more critics than praise as he didn't act during the sell-off in March - missing out on the markets sharp comeback to all-time highs.


A man famous for hating gold, Buffett's most recent moves will have surprised many. Quoted as having said gold "has no utility" and that the "magical metal" is no match for "American mettle", Buffett has just acquired $563 million of the world's second largest gold miner - Barrick gold. He also reduced his holdings in JP Morgan and Wells Fargo, having sold all of Berkshire's positions in Goldman Sachs.


So what can we deduce from these moves? Well firstly his selling of the banks indicates he is bearish on the US economy - banks are, after all, seen as some of the most economically sensitive stocks. Taking a position in Barrick Gold however has raised many more eyebrows given Buffett's views on the yellow shiny metal. Gold has had one of its largest rallies of all time this year and sits at $1950 - up about 40% in the last year. Barrick is back at levels last seen in 2013 - but obviously reckons there is further room to run.


So why the sudden change of tune on gold? Well firstly, I should note that Buffett runs Berkshire Hathaway with his long-term deputies, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler - so as to who is really behind putting the money to work in Barrick is unclear. But gold does well when investors are fearful, the dollar is weakening, and real yields plunge, and with Barrick, there is also the benefit of a dividend.


Although the headlines will focus on the nature of Buffett's latest positions, the facts remain that Buffett still holds large positions in the US banks, Barrick is just a small position of the overall portfolio, and he has not sold his big positions on America's largest and greatest such as Apple, Amazon and Coca-Cola.


So no - Buffett is not betting against America - in fact he remains positioned for America to prosper. But he is investing for a new America, one in which times will be tougher for a while, yields will be low, and airlines and banks take time to recover.

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© 2020 by James McAdam Stacey

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