The consumer is in for a tough ride. These stocks are set to rally.
- James McAdam Stacey
- Jul 20, 2020
- 2 min read
Updated: Jul 22, 2020
The US has an economy that is fuelled by the consumer - almost 70% of GDP is accounted for by consumer spending. But with Covid cases increasing each day, unemployment at record levels and consumer confidence waning, investors in the consumer space need to be especially selective when looking at which names are best poised to deliver for the rest of 2020.

With the pandemic showing no signs of abating in the US and a vaccine unlikely this year, the stocks to outperform going forward are likely to be a continuation of those that have done so over the last few months. This bodes well for packaged-goods stocks, as well as those apparel stocks offering casual and athletic options.
Assuming there is no vaccine widely publicly available until 2021, consumers are likely to continue their reigning in of spending on entertainment and travel, whilst high unemployment will remain elevated for some time to come.
Therefore stocks based on meals at home such as Campbell Soup and General Mills look particularly well placed. Campbell's also pays a 3.8% dividend which is well covered and could even be hiked in coming quarters such is the strength of their balance sheet. The stock also trades in-line with its 5-year average multiple at 17.5x.
Mexican-favourite Chipotle also looks set to continue it's upward momentum as 2020 continues to be the year in which getting a burrito delivered is equal parts self-care and socially responsible. Not only does Chipotle have great momentum and a pristine balance sheet, but the company has nailed digital innovation and consumer engagement. This is key to driving sales and Chipotle has already announced it is to hire 10,000 more staff to deal with it's new Covid-friendly drive-through "Chipotlanes."
Comfortable clothing should also be a winner as returns to the office continue to be delayed and companies enable more employees to work from home. Nike and Lululemon both have strong balance sheets, incredibly loyal fanbases and in Lululemon's case, the acquisition of Mirror - the at-home workout company which doubles as a mirror and a workout class - looks particularly smart in the current environment.
As we continue to stay at home, home and garden retailers will benefit as home improvements become the new favourite hobby for many of us - Lowe's looks especially attractive compared, and one I'd pick over Home Depot given it's greater exposure to the consumer, whilst Big Lots looks attractive after its recent pullback.
The hope of course is that we find a vaccine in the near future, and should that happen sooner than expected, I'd be looking to stock up on Beyond Meat and Tyson Foods and even an Estee Lauder if it appears that going out will also soon be on the cards.
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